For Directors of DTC at mid-tier California wineries
You own the DTC number. You don’t control half the levers that move it.
The Defensible Number Diagnostic separates the part of your number that’s the market from the part that’s you, on your own data, in one 30-minute call. $487, credited in full if you go on to work with me. You keep the number either way.
Pick a time, send one export. Nothing is charged until I’ve reviewed your data and confirmed there’s a number worth finding.
Tuesday morning. The same deck.
Three to five hours pulling numbers out of your commerce platform, your email platform, your reservation system, and the POS. Reconciling them in a spreadsheet. Rebuilding the same six slides for ownership. Then a question shifts, and next week you rebuild it again.
You already do the analysis. You already run the segments by hand. The work isn’t the gap.
The gap is that the deck can’t say the one thing the room actually wants to know: how much of this number was the market, and how much was us.
The role is harder than the job description says.
You’re accountable for the DTC revenue line. You don’t control the channel it sits in, the 2021 baseline it’s graded against, the release calendar, the tasting-room floor, or the founder’s Instagram.
So every quarter you walk in defending a number that is mostly not yours, with a deck that can’t tell which part is.
Say it plainly, because it’s true: the channel is contracting. The 2021 baseline isn’t repeatable. That is not a performance problem. It’s a measurement problem. And a measurement problem can be fixed in one pass.
What you walk out with
A Defensible Number is five lines on your data:
- What moved. The change in your DTC number over the period, stated.
- Why. The drivers, named.
- Inside your control. The dollars that came from what you and your team did: segmentation, sequencing, reactivation.
- Structural. The dollars that came from list growth, season, and the market.
- The one move. The single change most likely to shift the controllable part next quarter.
It fits on one page. It’s the sentence you’ve been missing at review: “Of the change in our number, this much was the market, this much was us, and here is what we’re doing about the part that’s us.”
You keep it in writing, whether or not we ever work together.
Not ready for a diagnostic?
Three short emails a week, written for Directors at this tier. No pitch in them.
One documented case, shown the way I’d show yours
I’ll be honest about the size of the evidence: it’s one club, over four-plus years, and I’d rather show it bracketed than pretend it’s a trend.
A DTC Director at a winery with an 11,600-subscriber club (we call her Maria) ran behavioral segmentation across 15 campaigns. 48% of engaged subscribers became buyers. 5% of the whole list responded, campaign after campaign.
Those are real numbers. They’re also exactly the kind of numbers that get misread. The list grew from 5,000 to 11,600 in the same period. How much of the result was due to her segmentation, and how much was simply the list getting bigger?
She could answer that, line by line, at review. The bracket is what made the number hers. That is what the diagnostic does with your number.
The Defensible Number Diagnostic
Not the whole engagement. One step.
I take your actual data and do the first bracket with you. We separate the part of your number that’s the market from the part that’s you. You walk away with your first Defensible Number and the single move most likely to change the part you control.
What it is not: a consulting call that ends in a slide deck. It’s the exact thing I’d do in week one if we worked together, done once, so you see how I operate before you decide anything bigger.
How it works
- Pick a time. Choose a slot on my calendar. The request comes to me first; nothing is booked or charged yet.
- Send one export. Within a few hours, you get short, step-by-step instructions for your platforms. About 15 minutes of your time.
- I review before you pay. If there isn’t a Defensible Number in your data worth more than the fee, I tell you, and we stop there. You’ve paid nothing.
- Confirm and take the call. If there is, you get a payment link for $487. Paying confirms the slot. On the call, I walk you through your number live.
$487
Credited in full against your first invoice if you go on to work with me.
Not refundable, and here is why: this is my time on your real numbers, not a product you can return. What you get instead of a refund: I only take the diagnostic on if I’m confident I can show you something worth more than you paid, and I keep working until you have your number and your one move.
Who it’s for
Built for the Director of DTC (or Consumer Experience, or Marketing) at a mid-tier premium California winery, roughly 15,000 to 100,000 cases. Not built for owners directly (send your Director), for creative-only marketing needs (your gap is upstream of this), or for anyone looking for WISE Academy, which is a different organization.
I run these myself, so I take a handful a week. When a week’s slots are taken, they’re taken. The price doesn’t change and nothing expires; the calendar just fills.
I don’t have time, even for this.
One export, about fifteen minutes, and one 30-minute call. It’s the smallest ask I could design, and it’s the one that gives time back: you leave with the number you’ve been rebuilding by hand.
Is it worth $487?
It’s credited if you go forward, and I only take it on if I’m sure I can show you something. The real question is what your actual number, bracketed, is worth in your next ownership review. You keep the artifact either way.
Why no refund?
Because the value is delivered on the call and can’t be handed back. In its place: I review your data before you pay, tell you if there’s nothing worth finding, and keep working until you have your number.
Is this consulting?
No. Consulting leaves you a deck. This leaves you a number you can defend, computed on your data, plus one operating move. It’s the first move of the work, not advice about the work.
Do I need IT, a new tool, or a migration?
No. Two or three exports from systems you already run, sent by email. Nothing to install, nothing to connect, nobody from IT.
What if my data won’t support it?
Then I tell you that before you pay, and we don’t proceed. That’s the point of reviewing first.
I’ve tried things before.
Every one of them was a noun: a deck, a tool, a report off a template. This is your number, on your data, that you keep.
Is this WISE Academy?
No. The WISE Service is Bizdom’s DTC operating service for winery Directors. WISE Academy is a separate training organization.
Picture the next review
You walk in and, for the first time, you’re not defending a number you can’t explain. You’re presenting one you built, with the market and your own work separated out. Nobody folds the person who can do that.
The first time you do it is the diagnostic.
The WISE Service is a Bizdom service and is not affiliated with WISE Academy.
